Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:02:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd92…4451 crypto 293 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$144 (-6%) realized −$135 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%150W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$360
7 days−$533
14 days−$462
30 days−$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$254
other 21% −$158
sports 14% +$4
weather 4% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 35% -33.4%
≤30d 287 -9.2% -17.9% 51% 39% -27.2%
≤90d 292 -8.5% -17.2% 51% 39% -25.8%
all 292 -8.5% -17.2% 51% 39% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 39% -25.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 28% -32.9%
15% -32.4% 21% -39.4%
20% -39.0% 14% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses150 / 142
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)292 / 293
History coverage34d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $153 −$15 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $107 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $106 +$2 +2%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 14m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.18 · official $91.18 (match) · 1033 history records