Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd94…6b1e sports 1339 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,290 (-10%) realized −$14,277 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%448W / 829L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$521est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days+$206
14 days+$1,378
30 days+$935
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$14,324
other 16% −$2,843
crypto 3% −$330
world 0% −$74
economics 0% −$40
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +15.0% +4.0% 50% 49% -3.3%
≤30d 304 -1.8% -11.2% 43% 42% +0.2%
≤90d 1003 -10.8% -19.3% 37% 35% -17.2%
all 1277 -11.4% -19.8% 35% 34% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 34% -21.7%
10% -27.5% 32% -29.2%
15% -34.5% 30% -36.0%
20% -40.9% 26% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$88 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$14,277
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses448 / 829
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$521
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1277 / 1339
History coverage187d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Top Esports Challenger 49¢ 80¢ $27 $45 +$18 (+66%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Over 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Saigon Warriors 51¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $49 −$49 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$33 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$23 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $67 +$33 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $49 +$19 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $29 +$19 +66%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $59 −$59 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $8 −$5 -66%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $48 +$53 +111%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $33 +$15 +47%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$11 +52%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$14 -69%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $20 −$7 -36%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $49 +$26 +53%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$13 +52%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$28 +94%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $49 +$25 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $44 +$15 +34%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$19 +60%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $39 +$160 +412%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $67 −$66 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $83 +$45 +55%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $116 +$86 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$5 -34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $38 +$8 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$27 +91%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $24 +$22 +93%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $100 +$44 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $71 −$70 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $55 +$28 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 49¢ $27 41m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 1¢ $2 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 50¢ $29 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $62 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 10h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 11h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 6¢ $5 11h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 18¢ $17 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $49 12h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $33 13h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 94¢ $53 14h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 15h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $5 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $10 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 9¢ $5 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $67 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $68 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $49 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $49 16h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY RED Canids 53¢ $59 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $29 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 7¢ $3 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 19¢ $8 17h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 26¢ $7 17h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 98¢ $101 18h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 46¢ $48 18h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $48 18h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 67¢ $33 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.18 · official $46.18 (match) · 2391 history records