Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd95…045f crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-4%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -17.9% -25.8% 21% 0% -18.4%
≤30d 38 -21.3% -28.8% 18% 0% -18.5%
≤90d 40 -25.3% -32.4% 18% 0% -18.6%
all 44 -19.4% -27.1% 23% 7% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 7% -17.9%
10% -34.1% 7% -25.8%
15% -40.4% 7% -32.9%
20% -46.3% 7% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage106d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 18 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 18 $4 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 02 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 02 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 02 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records