Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd95…4279 crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-7%) realized −$96 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%21W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$257
world 6% $0
other 3% +$6
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -8.7% -17.4% 48% 39% -25.4%
≤30d 44 -8.7% -17.4% 48% 39% -25.4%
≤90d 44 -8.7% -17.4% 48% 39% -25.4%
all 44 -8.7% -17.4% 48% 39% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 39% -25.4%
10% -25.3% 39% -32.5%
15% -32.5% 30% -39.1%
20% -39.1% 23% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$30 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses21 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage6d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$28 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$18 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $60 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$33 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$37 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$29 -96%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$12 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $72 +$32 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$53 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$126 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$57 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$9 +34%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $27 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $53 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $19 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $59 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $30 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $28 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $4.08 · 95 history records