Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd96…cbdc world 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (230 trades/day) — uncopyable! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$32,080 (+24%) realized +$32,098 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +135% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate76%32W / 10L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,260per market
Trades / day230.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$25,292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,312
7 days+$8,679
14 days+$16,588
30 days+$16,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$6,784
tech 10% +$518
politics 5% −$21
other 4% +$2,015
crypto 3% +$7,224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (230 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+112.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +196.0% +167.8% 79% 54% +5.5%
≤30d 42 +134.7% +112.3% 76% 45% +16.5%
≤90d 42 +134.7% +112.3% 76% 45% +16.5%
all 42 +134.7% +112.3% 76% 45% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover230.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +112.3% 45% +16.5%
10% +92.0% 31% +5.4%
15% ← realistic here +73.5% 26% -4.8%
20% +56.5% 17% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +135% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$1,507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +254% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
18.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$534 vs −$51 · ×10.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×33.42 per $1 lost it wins $33.42
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$25,292
Realized+$32,098
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses32 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions134
Markets (closed)42 / 105
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$1,260
Trades / day230.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 134 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 80¢ 94¢ $2,264 $2,676 +$411 (+18%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $1,762 $1,939 +$177 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,472 $1,494 +$21 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 77¢ 84¢ $1,166 $1,275 +$108 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,198 $1,267 +$69 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1,164 $1,191 +$27 (+2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 80¢ 94¢ $929 $1,099 +$169 (+18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $882 $897 +$15 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 88¢ 96¢ $756 $825 +$69 (+9%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 87¢ 99¢ $660 $753 +$93 (+14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 57¢ 64¢ $660 $751 +$91 (+14%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 80¢ 97¢ $526 $642 +$116 (+22%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $614 $638 +$24 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $496 $498 +$3 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $487 $494 +$7 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 45¢ 39¢ $533 $465 −$67 (-13%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $472 $455 −$17 (-4%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? No 82¢ 84¢ $386 $394 +$8 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $345 $352 +$7 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $279 $298 +$19 (+7%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $285 $287 +$2 (+1%)
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? No 75¢ 74¢ $292 $285 −$8 (-3%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 93¢ 92¢ $279 $278 −$0 (-0%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 91¢ 90¢ $274 $271 −$3 (-1%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $254 $253 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 17 $5 +$48 +989%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $16,956 +$1,780 +10%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 16 $23 +$1,484 +6342%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $1,585 +$666 +42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $192 +$43 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,410 +$510 +36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $16 −$4 -28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $3,882 +$617 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $1,881 +$199 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $1,605 +$52 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $457 −$298 -65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $2,765 +$520 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $3,839 +$1,082 +28%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $309 −$13 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $3,155 +$1,308 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $204 +$183 +90%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $112 +$4 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $452 +$26 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $46 +$9 +20%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $200 −$9 -4%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $377 +$4 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 12 $40 +$42 +105%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $110 +$40 +36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $1,507 +$293 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 11 $900 +$57 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $2,495 +$39 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 10 $4 $0 -10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 10 $428 +$46 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 08 $675 +$14 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 08 $608 +$103 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $736 +$54 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,616 +$583 +36%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 07 $138 +$8 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 07 $81 +$3 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 06 $2,117 −$178 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 05 $653 +$52 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $237 +$6 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3,769 +$7,224 +192%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $91 4m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 4m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $195 4m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $186 9m
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 31m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 95¢ $67 34m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 95¢ $171 35m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 47m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 6¢ $12 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 6¢ $8 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 6¢ $5 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $20 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $167 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 27¢ $54 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $153 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 18¢ $36 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $134 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $110 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $36 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $58 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $88 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $119 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 10¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,292.10 · official $25,293.22 (match) · 3500 history records