Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd96…9ee4 world 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,017 (+8%) realized +$1,308 · open −$291
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%74W / 35L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4,249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$25
14 days+$32
30 days+$585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$994
politics 24% +$164
other 19% −$4
economics 5% −$308
finance 4% +$247
culture 3% +$28
crypto 2% +$4
sports 2% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.8% -16.6% 70% 40% -5.5%
≤30d 34 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 47% +11.0%
≤90d 68 -2.0% -11.3% 62% 50% +5.7%
all 109 -0.7% -10.2% 68% 52% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 52% +4.8%
10% -18.8% 34% -5.3%
15% -26.6% 27% -14.4%
20% -33.8% 24% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$34 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$4,249
Realized+$1,308
Unrealized−$291
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses74 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions44
Markets (closed)109 / 153
History coverage238d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 68¢ 78¢ $749 $857 +$108 (+14%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $500 $425 −$75 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 44¢ $400 $325 −$75 (-19%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 73¢ 87¢ $258 $309 +$51 (+20%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 74¢ 94¢ $200 $253 +$53 (+26%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 72¢ $150 $225 +$75 (+50%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No 72¢ 84¢ $180 $212 +$32 (+18%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 73¢ 81¢ $189 $211 +$22 (+12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 77¢ 88¢ $150 $171 +$21 (+14%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $200 $160 −$40 (-20%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 48¢ 20¢ $325 $140 −$185 (-57%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 71¢ 90¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $105 $113 +$8 (+7%)
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No 91¢ 87¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes 39¢ 51¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+31%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 65¢ 50¢ $80 $62 −$18 (-23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 19¢ 10¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 57¢ 86¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+52%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 69¢ 18¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-20%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $55 $22 −$33 (-60%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 19¢ $5 $19 +$14 (+286%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $102 +$47 +46%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $66 +$80 +122%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $111 +$32 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $54 +$7 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $60 +$94 +156%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $30 +$6 +20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $100 +$18 +18%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? May 31 $50 +$40 +80%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $10 −$8 -77%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 31 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? May 31 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026? May 31 $20 −$19 -95%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 31 $50 −$50 -99%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 31 $60 −$18 -30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? May 31 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? May 31 $20 +$4 +18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? May 31 $20 +$17 +85%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 31 $20 +$19 +94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 31 $116 +$69 +60%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 31 $75 +$42 +56%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 31 $126 +$39 +31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 31 $925 +$572 +62%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $50 +$27 +54%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 18 $350 +$28 +8%
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto Apr 18 $20 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 18 $240 +$23 +10%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $30 +$16 +54%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 16 $60 +$15 +25%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $110 +$57 +52%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $50 +$26 +53%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Apr 11 $20 +$9 +45%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Apr 11 $12 +$14 +117%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $26 +$34 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $58 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 1h
ECB rate cut in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 73¢ $50 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 96¢ $149 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 27h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $5 47h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $10 47h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $100 47h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $146 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $93 47h
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $20 47h
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $53 47h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? SELL Yes 94¢ $20 47h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $100 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $143 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 78¢ $61 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 89¢ $54 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 85¢ $50 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 77¢ $50 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $36 16d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 30¢ $99 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 19¢ $70 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $200 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $100 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 20¢ $20 17d
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 17d
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $200 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,248.58 · official $4,248.62 (match) · 609 history records