Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd96…11a3 sports 1492 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$850 (-1%) realized −$2,346 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%870W / 680L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day144.2pace
Fees−$699est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,514
7 days−$2,944
14 days−$2,661
30 days−$2,346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,566
crypto 3% −$313
other 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 936 -14.3% -22.5% 51% 46% -15.8%
≤30d 1550 -8.4% -17.1% 56% 50% -12.6%
≤90d 1550 -8.4% -17.1% 56% 50% -12.6%
all 1550 -8.4% -17.1% 56% 50% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 50% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 39% -21.0%
15% -32.3% 28% -28.6%
20% -38.9% 19% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$29 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,429
Realized−$2,346
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses870 / 680
Est. fees paid−$699
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1550 / 1492
History coverage17d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day144.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 1550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zhang Shuai Zhang 45¢ 50¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 52¢ 57¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Kilian Feldbausch 70¢ 74¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Barbora Krejcikova 51¢ 50¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 63¢ 74¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 61¢ 64¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Hynek Barton 54¢ 56¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Brandon Nakashima 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Stefano Napolitano 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio Gabriele Bosio 81¢ 80¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Valerio Aboian Valerio Aboian 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Learner Tien 83¢ 80¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Madison Keys 74¢ 72¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Maks Kasnikowski 69¢ 65¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Zsombor Piros 52¢ 60¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Daniel Michalski 29¢ 30¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Eliakim Coulibaly 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Alastair Gray 43¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Clement Chidekh 44¢ 40¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
ITF Varnamo: Patrik Munkhammar vs Max Dahlin Max Dahlin 56¢ 50¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Lucas Poullain 32¢ 28¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Robin Bertrand 37¢ 32¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
ITF Bol: Miriam Bulgaru vs Iva Primorac Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Little Rock: Fajing Sun vs Dakotah Bobo Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Brooksby vs Ruud Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Bondar (-1.5) vs Arango (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
ITF Kosice: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Caroline Werner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Wichita: Malaika Rapolu vs Maria Sholokhova Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Chisinau: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Istanbul: Mert Alkaya vs Georgii Kravchenko Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Bol: Noa Vukadin vs Maks Kasnikowski Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
ITF Wuning: Alexandra Shubladze vs Yidi Yang Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Wang Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Vasilisa Taranova vs Mirjana Jovanovic Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Fiona Ferro Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Cervia: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Tommaso Compagnucci Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Andreea Prisacariu vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Fukui: Fang An Lin vs Kokona Ishii Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Pavel Kotov Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Paul Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Kaitlin Quevedo Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Changwon: Dayeon Back vs Ha Eum Lee Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Mboko vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Magdalena Frech vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $30 −$29 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
ITF Monastir: Arthur Weber vs Fausto Tabacco Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Kosice: Lilian Marmousez vs Taro Daniel Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Pridankina/Tang vs Noskova/Valentova Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Blockx vs. Wong: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Maxime Janvier Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Magda Linette Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Parks vs. Teichmann: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Cervia: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Guido Justo Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 44¢ $20 1m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 58¢ $101 12m
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio BUY Gabriele Bosio 81¢ $50 21m
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Carolina Alves 81¢ $10 51m
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Alastair Gray 43¢ $20 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 67¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 56¢ $6 2h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 52¢ $20 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $101 3h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 77¢ $10 5h
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 37¢ $17 5h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 50¢ $51 5h
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella BUY Alina Shcherbinina 90¢ $10 6h
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Hynek Barton 54¢ $51 7h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 56¢ $10 7h
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini BUY Peter Buldorini 13¢ $21 8h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 30¢ $20 8h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 63¢ $51 8h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Maks Kasnikowski 69¢ $50 8h
Poznan: Alexander Shevchenko vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri BUY Alexander Shevchenko 50¢ $51 8h
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma BUY Madison Brengle 60¢ $51 8h
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain BUY Lucas Poullain 32¢ $20 8h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY RED Canids 40¢ $20 9h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 23¢ $51 9h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 60¢ $51 9h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 20¢ $26 9h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 62¢ $51 9h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 53¢ $51 9h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 53¢ $9 9h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 51¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,428.51 · official $1,427.69 (match) · 3500 history records