Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CD 0xcd97…8ec1 sports 713 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%442W / 256L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days+$42
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$2
other 13% −$2
weather 4% +$21
crypto 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -0.9% -10.4% 63% 63% -10.1%
≤30d 698 +0.6% -8.9% 63% 63% -9.4%
≤90d 698 +0.6% -8.9% 63% 63% -9.4%
all 698 +0.6% -8.9% 63% 63% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 63% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 63% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 63% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 43% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses442 / 256
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions15
Markets (closed)698 / 713
History coverage28d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 698 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 65¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? No 68¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Cabo Verde 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? No 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs ex-RUBY 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Top Esports Challenger 70¢ 44¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 30m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $5 58m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 70¢ $5 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 65¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $5 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 5h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 67¢ $5 5h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $5 8h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 9h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 9h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $5 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $5 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 13h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $5 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $5 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $5 18h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 18h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 18h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 63¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.61 · official $75.61 (match) · 1167 history records