Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd9c…4301 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$8
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$6
sports 16% −$13
crypto 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +9.7% -0.8% 79% 50% -4.6%
≤30d 32 -20.1% -27.7% 53% 34% -14.1%
≤90d 32 -20.1% -27.7% 53% 34% -14.1%
all 32 -20.1% -27.7% 53% 34% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 34% -14.1%
10% -34.6% 25% -22.4%
15% -40.9% 25% -29.9%
20% -46.7% 22% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage11d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$9 +58%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$13 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$7 +158%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 $0 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 +$3 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$14 +54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $28 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 10h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 31h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 45h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 45h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 45h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 73¢ $7 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $8 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.09 · official $27.09 (match) · 68 history records