Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CD 0xcd9c…7c0d other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+6%) realized +$14 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$14
14 days+$18
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$14
sports 39% +$2
world 14% +$4
politics 4% −$11
crypto 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +19.9% +8.5% 79% 71% +2.7%
≤30d 25 -6.3% -15.2% 64% 56% -4.7%
≤90d 25 -6.3% -15.2% 64% 56% -4.7%
all 25 -6.3% -15.2% 64% 56% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 56% -4.7%
10% -23.3% 44% -13.8%
15% -30.7% 40% -22.1%
20% -37.5% 28% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)25 / 31
History coverage18d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Kia Tigers 98¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Samsung Lions 86¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 07 $14 −$1 -6%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 06 $6 +$4 +56%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY Kia Tigers 98¢ $30 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 89¢ $5 2h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 84¢ $5 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $3 24h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 98¢ $40 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 9d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants $1 14d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants SELL Hanwha Eagles 90¢ $18 14d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants BUY Hanwha Eagles 74¢ $7 14d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants BUY Hanwha Eagles 57¢ $0 14d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants BUY Hanwha Eagles 57¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.23 · official $58.23 (match) · 62 history records