Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcd9d…4702 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$274 (+21%) realized +$274 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$160
sports 15% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.0% +6.8% 71% 71% +5.6%
≤30d 7 +18.0% +6.8% 71% 71% +5.6%
≤90d 7 +18.0% +6.8% 71% 71% +5.6%
all 7 +18.0% +6.8% 71% 71% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 71% +5.6%
10% -3.5% 71% -4.5%
15% -12.8% 71% -13.8%
20% -21.3% 57% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$150 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$54 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $58 +$48 +83%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $30 +$23 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $745 +$356 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $254 −$250 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $99 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $58 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $744 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $254 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records