Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd9e…9585 other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$21
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$21
politics 25% −$19
sports 16% −$5
crypto 8% +$6
world 8% +$1
economics 5% −$2
culture 4% −$2
finance 3% +$3
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 67 -0.8% -10.2% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 120 -0.5% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 135 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage100d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $54 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $373 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $155 −$1 -1%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $46 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $165 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $46 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $244 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $148 −$2 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $249 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $36 −$1 -3%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $107 −$1 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $137 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $35 $0 -1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential Jun 04 $28 −$2 -7%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $58 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $118 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $105 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $298 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $104 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 52m
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $64 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $66 7h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $6 8h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $6 14h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $54 14h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 23h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 33h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $44 34h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $45 42h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $51 43h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $52 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $50 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $51 3d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $46 3d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $46 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $44 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $44 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $45 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.53 · official $46.53 (match) · 461 history records