Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcda0…a51a sports 1522 markets active 2d ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 234d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$510 (-1%) realized −$424 · open −$86
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%840W / 673L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$65
14 days−$149
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$1,316
other 7% −$350
crypto 2% −$152
politics 1% +$436
economics 1% +$54
world 0% −$37
finance 0% −$21
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -10.6% -19.1% 54% 54% -14.1%
≤30d 207 +3.6% -6.2% 61% 59% -5.6%
≤90d 433 +0.1% -9.4% 61% 58% -9.2%
all 1513 -2.7% -11.9% 56% 53% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 53% -13.1%
10% -20.4% 49% -21.4%
15% -28.1% 43% -29.0%
20% -35.1% 33% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$518
Realized−$424
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses840 / 673
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1513 / 1522
History coverage235d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1513 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $400 $325 −$75 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $90 $106 +$16 (+18%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 74¢ $55 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 49¢ 18¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 57¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +83%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $20 +$15 +73%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $34 +$27 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $64 −$63 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$43 -85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $72 +$53 +73%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $21 +$13 +65%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$10 +47%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 −$20 -67%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$7 +180%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$7 +146%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$5 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$33 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $51 +$35 +69%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +35%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$4 -83%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$5 +32%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $45 +$10 +23%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 37h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 43¢ $9 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $20 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $20 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $10 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 46¢ $10 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $60 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $33 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $34 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 69¢ $8 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $8 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $23 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 65¢ $5 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 21¢ $0 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 16¢ $3 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 22¢ $4 3d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) SELL KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $30 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 60¢ $21 3d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 63¢ $20 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $72 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 13¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $518.21 · official $518.21 (match) · 3500 history records