Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcda1…edb2 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (203 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$943 (+25%) realized +$943 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day203.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$1,166
sports 10% −$357
other 4% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (203 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +29.1% +16.8% 42% 42% +7.3%
≤30d 24 +29.1% +16.8% 42% 42% +7.3%
≤90d 24 +29.1% +16.8% 42% 42% +7.3%
all 24 +29.1% +16.8% 42% 42% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover203.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.8% 42% +7.3%
10% ← realistic here +5.6% 42% -3.0%
15% -4.6% 42% -12.4%
20% -14.0% 38% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$156 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$943
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day203.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $42 +$18 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $74 +$332 +451%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $42 +$62 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $222 −$211 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $223 −$210 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $127 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $117 −$110 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $90 +$214 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $74 +$142 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 28 $179 −$170 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $91 −$86 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $88 +$201 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $137 +$462 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $133 −$133 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $357 −$357 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $79 +$157 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $524 +$1,103 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $308 +$167 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $423 −$400 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records