Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcda3…3221 crypto 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$580 (+16%) realized +$581 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%45W / 71L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$885
7 days+$760
14 days+$760
30 days+$760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$298
other 11% +$170
politics 6% −$231
sports 6% +$226
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +8.9% -1.4% 41% 40% +14.5%
≤30d 108 +8.9% -1.4% 41% 40% +14.5%
≤90d 108 +8.9% -1.4% 41% 40% +14.5%
all 116 +3.6% -6.2% 39% 38% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 38% +3.8%
10% -15.2% 38% -6.1%
15% -23.4% 36% -15.2%
20% -30.9% 33% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$24 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$581
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses45 / 71
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage179d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$39 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$43 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$62 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$36 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $80 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $67 +$37 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$19 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$8 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$45 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $97 +$166 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $80 −$78 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $93 +$83 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$41 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$21 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$81 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$117 +446%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$70 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$21 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$37 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$60 +228%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 0m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $43 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $17 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $20 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $37 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.61 · official $127.61 (match) · 335 history records