Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcda5…78da crypto 810 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,909 (-129%) realized −$5,906 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%77W / 728L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day42.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,269
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-54.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 251 -41.0% -46.6% 10% 10% -55.5%
≤30d 303 -49.7% -54.5% 9% 9% -58.1%
≤90d 805 -50.1% -54.9% 10% 9% -55.9%
all 805 -50.1% -54.9% 10% 9% -55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.9% 9% -55.9%
10% ← realistic here -59.2% 9% -60.1%
15% -63.1% 9% -64.0%
20% -66.7% 9% -67.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$4 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$5,906
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses77 / 728
Open positions5
Markets (closed)805 / 810
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 805 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+130%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-40%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 4¢ 6¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? Jun 16 $2 +$21 +1149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +286%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 4AM ET? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +230%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 3AM ET? Jun 16 $9 −$7 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$7 +520%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +179%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$8 +428%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +171%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 16, 2AM ET? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +334%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 1AM ET? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 16, 1AM ET? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 17m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? SELL Yes 59¢ $18 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.97 · official $36.92 (match) · 3500 history records