Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcda8…a884 crypto 1156 markets active 4d ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$740 (-12%) realized −$740 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%517W / 639L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$61
14 days−$93
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$796
other 1% +$5
politics 0% −$10
weather 0% −$3
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -26.6% -33.6% 35% 35% -35.0%
≤30d 220 -21.2% -28.7% 41% 41% -30.1%
≤90d 891 -33.9% -40.2% 33% 33% -32.9%
all 1156 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 43% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 43% -21.1%
10% -26.9% 40% -28.7%
15% -34.0% 38% -35.6%
20% -40.5% 36% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$740
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses517 / 639
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1156 / 1156
History coverage163d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1156 Trades
no open positions (328 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2633 history records