Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcda8…7f1d other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-15%) realized −$38 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$30
sports 37% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-54.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -49.1% -54.0% 30% 30% -18.1%
≤30d 10 -49.1% -54.0% 30% 30% -18.1%
≤90d 10 -49.1% -54.0% 30% 30% -18.1%
all 10 -49.1% -54.0% 30% 30% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.0% 30% -18.1%
10% -58.4% 20% -25.9%
15% -62.4% 20% -33.1%
20% -66.1% 10% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Execration 83¢ 77¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $50 +$9 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$5 -26%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 83¢ $50 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 84¢ $50 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.39 · official $46.39 (match) · 16 history records