Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcdad…7987 world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$18 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$12
other 30% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +22.6% +11.0% 50% 25% -9.7%
≤30d 4 +22.6% +11.0% 50% 25% -9.7%
≤90d 4 +22.6% +11.0% 50% 25% -9.7%
all 4 +22.6% +11.0% 50% 25% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.0% 25% -9.7%
10% +0.3% 25% -18.3%
15% -9.4% 25% -26.2%
20% -18.2% 25% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$29 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage7d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $74 $70 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $23 +$22 +96%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $415 +$5 +1%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 18 $411 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 17 $442 −$29 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $36 1h
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $45 1h
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 2h
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 2h
Modi out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $419 5d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $415 6d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $411 6d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $411 6d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $413 6d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $442 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.75 · official $69.75 (match) · 11 history records