Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdae…c02e other 195 markets active 8h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,427 (-9%) realized −$2,384 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%66W / 114L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day61.0pace
Fees−$275est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$307
7 days−$2,476
14 days−$2,927
30 days−$2,945
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$720
other 34% −$1,356
world 12% −$202
crypto 3% −$440
politics 2% −$161
tech 1% −$37
finance 0% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -16.1% -24.1% 38% 30% -18.7%
≤30d 180 -23.9% -31.2% 37% 29% -19.9%
≤90d 180 -23.9% -31.2% 37% 29% -19.9%
all 180 -23.9% -31.2% 37% 29% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 29% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 21% -27.6%
15% -43.8% 15% -34.6%
20% -49.3% 12% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$67 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$2,384
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses66 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$275
Open positions15
Markets (closed)180 / 195
History coverage23d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 59¢ 42¢ $70 $51 −$19 (-28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 33¢ 51¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+52%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 40¢ 29¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-79%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 3¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-98%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $34 −$6 -19%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 −$16 -67%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 −$11 -63%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 $0 -1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$4 -20%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $48 −$11 -22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $126 −$43 -34%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +51%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Scotland to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $134 −$44 -33%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $475 −$104 -22%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $159 −$85 -54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$6 +56%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $87 +$34 +40%
Australia to score first vs. United States? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -25%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $208 +$35 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 +$26 +133%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $70 +$20 +28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -68%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$2 +104%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +310%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in priso Jun 18 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele Jun 18 $74 −$13 -18%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 18 $10 −$8 -80%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 18 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 18 $63 −$10 -16%
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 18 $119 −$25 -21%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $70 +$6 +9%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $258 −$220 -85%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $75 +$40 +54%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$26 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $2 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 77¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.44 · official $186.27 (match) · 1476 history records