Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdb1…805c other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$608 (-17%) realized −$584 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%21W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$495
7 days−$540
14 days−$540
30 days−$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$438
crypto 2% −$32
world 2% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -78.4% -80.5% 6% 6% -52.1%
≤30d 17 -78.4% -80.5% 6% 6% -52.1%
≤90d 17 -78.4% -80.5% 6% 6% -52.1%
all 78 -21.8% -29.2% 27% 23% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 23% -24.9%
10% -36.0% 17% -32.1%
15% -42.2% 13% -38.6%
20% -47.9% 9% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$19 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$626
Realized−$584
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses21 / 57
Open positions8
Markets (closed)78 / 86
History coverage118d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Canada? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $143 −$143 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $304 +$253 +83%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $280 −$276 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $26 −$4 -16%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $26 −$5 -19%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $21 −$18 -88%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $91 −$89 -98%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $83 −$77 -93%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $39 −$15 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $25 −$13 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $14 −$7 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $15 −$11 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $50 +$39 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $42 +$49 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $46 −$12 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $36 −$5 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $4 −$2 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $12 +$36 +306%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $16 +$7 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $13 −$7 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $14 −$2 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $18 +$6 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $16 −$4 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $35 −$10 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $32 −$21 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $17 −$16 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 18 $178 −$10 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $25 +$21 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $58 −$7 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $18 +$39 +218%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $9 −$2 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $27 −$8 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $30 −$13 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $141 −$26 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $47 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $205 +$71 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $72 +$32 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $13 +$24 +184%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? SELL Yes 100¢ $557 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 30¢ $143 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $213 22h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 22h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal? SELL Yes 4¢ $22 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $67 22h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 22h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 24h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 24h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 24h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $91 27h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $625.77 · official $625.77 (match) · 375 history records