Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:29:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdb2…0c7a weather 1733 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$198 (+0%) realized +$197 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1673W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$46
14 days−$1,321
30 days−$1,409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 483 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1539 -0.6% -10.0% 99% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 1691 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -10.0%
all 1691 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 1% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$107 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1,849
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1673 / 18
Open positions40
Markets (closed)1691 / 1733
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 1691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 7? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 10? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 6? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on June 4? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 6? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 4? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 11? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 13? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 8? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 9? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 9? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$14 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 28m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 34m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $26 8h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $46 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,849.20 · official $1,849.20 (match) · 3500 history records