Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

CD 0xcdb7…68d4 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$160 (+7%) realized +$102 · open +$58

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip

Net edge-58%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%6W / 17L

Drawdown80%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day28.0pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-51.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-46.1%	-51.2%	26%	26%	-7.2%
≤30d	23	-46.1%	-51.2%	26%	26%	-7.2%
≤90d	23	-46.1%	-51.2%	26%	26%	-7.2%
all	23	-46.1%	-51.2%	26%	26%	-7.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover28.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-51.2%	26%	-7.2%
10% ← realistic here	-55.9%	26%	-16.0%
15%	-60.2%	26%	-24.2%
20%	-64.1%	22%	-31.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -46% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -36% → late -55% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$117 vs −$39 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.07 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$478

Realized+$102

Unrealized+$58

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses6 / 17

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage1d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day28.0

Drawdown80%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	53¢	54¢	$300	$303	+$3 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Aurora Gaming	55¢	80¢	$120	$176	+$56 (+46%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 18	$52	−$50	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 18	$103	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 18	$11	+$10	+95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 18	$41	−$40	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Jun 18	$145	+$147	+101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 18	$52	−$50	-96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 18	$28	−$27	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 18	$153	+$67	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 18	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 18	$21	−$20	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 18	$53	−$50	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 18	$53	−$50	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 18	$114	+$111	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 18	$11	−$11	-100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$254	+$314	+124%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$252	−$127	-51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Jun 17	$102	+$51	+50%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$203	−$40	-20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$52	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$103	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	SELL Down	53¢	$21	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$11	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$41	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$145	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$52	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$28	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$153	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$21	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$53	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$53	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$114	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$11	4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$304	6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Aurora Gaming	55¢	$122	9h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$15	17h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	17h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	18h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	16¢	$26	18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	39¢	$124	19h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	44¢	$254	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$5	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$102	20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	45¢	$163	21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	54¢	$203	21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$252	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.47 · official $478.47 (match) · 38 history records