Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdba…77f6 crypto 1295 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,816 (+4%) realized +$1,816 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%163W / 1132L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day107.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 601 +1.6% -8.1% 27% 19% -7.0%
≤30d 1295 +0.7% -8.9% 13% 9% -7.2%
≤90d 1295 +0.7% -8.9% 13% 9% -7.2%
all 1295 +0.7% -8.9% 13% 9% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 9% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 5% -16.1%
15% -25.5% 1% -24.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$40 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,816
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses163 / 1132
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1295 / 1295
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day107.9
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1295 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $900 +$41 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $300 −$88 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $300 −$175 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$83 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$106 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$124 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$123 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$97 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$115 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $300 −$176 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$76 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$80 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$93 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$59 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$68 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $300 −$159 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$51 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$87 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$60 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $300 −$113 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $300 −$31 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$36 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $180 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $180 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $180 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $180 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $180 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $180 −$92 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $180 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $180 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $180 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $180 +$48 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $180 −$22 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $180 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $180 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $60 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $21 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $22 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $18 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $19 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $21 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $22 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $22 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $23 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records