Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcdba…a3da economics 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$2,453per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 231d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 84% $0
crypto 14% $0
other 2% +$12
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 0% -7.6%
all 5 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$0 · ×129.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×32.42 per $1 lost it wins $32.42
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage231d
Avg bet$2,453
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 27 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Apr 20 $208 +$12 +6%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 28 $1,672 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 28 $10,021 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $143 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $143 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $220 67d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $220 67d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $993 210d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $36 210d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $642 210d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $1,672 210d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,672 210d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,672 210d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,670 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,670 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,670 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,628 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,670 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,670 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,670 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,670 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,670 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,455 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 211d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $110 211d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $208 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records