Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdbd…d0df sports 431 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (224 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$173 (+1%) realized +$186 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%198W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day224.4pace
Fees−$178est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$264
other 1% −$9
world 0% +$6
crypto 0% +$116
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (224 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 401 -4.8% -13.9% 49% 43% -10.3%
≤30d 401 -4.8% -13.9% 49% 43% -10.3%
≤90d 401 -4.8% -13.9% 49% 43% -10.3%
all 401 -4.8% -13.9% 49% 43% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover224.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 43% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 37% -18.9%
15% -29.6% 31% -26.7%
20% -36.5% 25% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$186
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses198 / 203
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions30
Markets (closed)401 / 431
History coverage6d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day224.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Ayumi Miyamoto Ayumi Miyamoto 18¢ 47¢ $20 $54 +$33 (+165%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $24 $22 −$1 (-6%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 72¢ 70¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 78¢ 75¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 57¢ 100¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+75%)
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 96¢ 82¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-24%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-18%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Cabo Verde 38¢ 36¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Under 98¢ 96¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich Evialina Laskevich 85¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Chunichi Dragons Chunichi Dragons 50¢ 50¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 53¢ 54¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 31¢ 32¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Wuning: Matthew Dellavedova vs Max Purcell Jun 28 $18 +$6 +34%
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $11 +$1 +6%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $3 +$5 +152%
Aguada Santeros vs. Piratas de Quebradillas Jun 28 $12 +$3 +27%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 28 $6 +$5 +79%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $15 $0 -2%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 28 $7 $0 +1%
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Jun 28 $6 +$1 +16%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $19 −$9 -50%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $32 −$22 -70%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $91 +$9 +10%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $63 −$2 -3%
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $12 −$6 -50%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $10 $0 +5%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $9 +$3 +35%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $21 +$2 +7%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $45 +$11 +24%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 28 $86 −$3 -4%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-9.5) Jun 28 $24 +$11 +47%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $66 −$43 -64%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $64 −$13 -20%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 28 $9 −$8 -97%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $29 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$119 +1035%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 28 $14 +$1 +10%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $64 −$7 -12%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $46 −$45 -99%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 28 $18 +$2 +11%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $6 +$12 +203%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $5 −$1 -26%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $62 −$4 -7%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$4 -46%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 −$9 -48%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $16 +$3 +17%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $13 +$1 +11%
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $6 +$10 +188%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $8 +$2 +24%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $11 +$8 +69%
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $12 +$32 +273%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $11 +$1 +8%
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $17 +$15 +87%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $11 −$11 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $45 −$17 -37%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $117 −$52 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 2m
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $5 3m
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich BUY Evialina Laskevich 85¢ $5 13m
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich BUY Evialina Laskevich 85¢ $1 14m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 53¢ $6 17m
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $5 23m
Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Chunichi Dragons BUY Chunichi Dragons 50¢ $6 25m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 52¢ $6 35m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 30¢ $6 37m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 23¢ $6 47m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 59¢ $3 55m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 59¢ $3 55m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 78¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 78¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $6 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $15 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $13 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 89¢ $6 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 86¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.56 · official $231.92 · 1717 history records