Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcdc0…e6a6 sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,519 (+14%) realized +$1,519 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$650
other 6% +$533
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +31.6% +19.1% 56% 56% +1.7%
≤30d 27 +31.6% +19.1% 56% 56% +1.7%
≤90d 27 +31.6% +19.1% 56% 56% +1.7%
all 27 +31.6% +19.1% 56% 56% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.1% 56% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here +7.7% 52% -8.0%
15% -2.7% 52% -16.9%
20% -12.3% 48% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$620) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$275 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,519
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage3d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $190 +$499 +262%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$140 +276%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $336 −$331 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $137 +$199 +145%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $53 +$84 +158%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 17 $162 −$52 -32%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $679 −$667 -98%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $699 −$686 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $692 −$682 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $720 −$312 -43%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $308 +$344 +112%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $507 +$435 +86%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $647 +$384 +59%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $1,396 +$166 +12%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $302 −$297 -98%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $196 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $919 +$368 +40%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $200 +$348 +174%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $620 +$509 +82%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $256 +$165 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $137 +$138 +101%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $398 +$436 +109%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $131 +$269 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $689 28m
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $190 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $191 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $336 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $337 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $137 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $137 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 38¢ $53 8h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P SELL Walczaki 31¢ $109 2d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 38¢ $24 2d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 38¢ $1 2d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 38¢ $11 2d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 38¢ $6 2d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 38¢ $11 2d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 38¢ $53 2d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 30¢ $535 2d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 29¢ $37 2d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 38¢ $699 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Co BUY 37¢ $509 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Co BUY 27¢ $194 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $692 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $869 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $652 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $942 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $49 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $264 2d
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 100¢ $1,031 2d
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 62¢ $647 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $507 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records