Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdc3…fdbe sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$22 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$127
14 days+$127
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$133
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -32.7% -39.1% 35% 35% +1.8%
≤30d 17 -32.7% -39.1% 35% 35% +1.8%
≤90d 17 -32.7% -39.1% 35% 35% +1.8%
all 17 -32.7% -39.1% 35% 35% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 35% +1.8%
10% -45.0% 24% -7.9%
15% -50.3% 18% -16.8%
20% -55.1% 12% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$28 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $147 +$129 +88%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $168 +$72 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$48 -95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $126 −$80 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -92%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $84 −$60 -71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $74 +$14 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $126 +$27 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $74 −$43 -58%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $116 +$178 +154%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $37 +$10 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 47¢ $210 2m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 12¢ $32 15m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 29¢ $32 26m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 35¢ $42 30m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $67 34m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $42 50m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 8¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 39¢ $169 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 9¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 15¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $42 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 18¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 13¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 30¢ $91 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $32 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $42 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 53¢ $137 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 24¢ $42 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 38¢ $42 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $8 32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $42 32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 8¢ $11 32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 35¢ $31 32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $42 33h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 57¢ $66 33h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 33¢ $42 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 10¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 21¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 79 history records