Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CD 0xcdc4…da65 crypto 667 markets active 2h ago coverage 768d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,981 (-7%) realized −$16,981 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%338W / 329L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$211
14 days+$38
30 days−$2,087
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$16,822
politics 4% −$2,485
sports 4% −$364
other 2% −$1,481
tech 1% +$149
world 1% −$316
economics 0% −$327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 56% -3.7%
≤30d 244 -6.1% -15.0% 52% 50% -13.2%
≤90d 636 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 49% -15.9%
all 667 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 47% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 47% -17.5%
10% -26.7% 45% -25.4%
15% -33.8% 40% -32.6%
20% -40.3% 34% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$267 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

768d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,981
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses338 / 329
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)667 / 667
History coverage768d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 667 Trades
no open positions (266 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $260 +$136 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $427 +$430 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $363 −$350 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $310 +$273 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $520 +$252 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $415 +$493 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $623 −$623 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $114 +$79 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $331 +$300 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $193 +$156 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $322 −$310 -96%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $502 +$486 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $518 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $217 −$210 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $570 +$362 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $414 +$393 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $929 +$408 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 08 $294 −$286 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 08 $228 +$148 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $311 +$294 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $621 −$600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 04 $827 −$800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $624 +$376 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $435 +$365 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 04 $515 +$366 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 04 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 03 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 03 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 03 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 03 $131 +$54 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 03 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 03 $114 +$82 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 03 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 03 $217 +$156 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 03 $109 +$91 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 03 $103 +$88 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $106 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1976 history records