Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcdc4…a880 sports 208 markets active 48d ago coverage 336d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 336d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,049 (-1%) realized −$2,049 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%102W / 143L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$881per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 336d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 19% +$1,457
crypto 19% +$1,316
sports 17% +$4,250
politics 16% −$5,365
world 15% −$1,913
economics 14% −$14,467
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -26.9% -33.8% 15% 15% -80.5%
≤30d 33 -26.9% -33.8% 15% 15% -80.5%
≤90d 48 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 21% -79.7%
all 245 +19.2% +7.9% 42% 27% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.9% 27% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -2.5% 24% -27.3%
15% -11.9% 22% -34.3%
20% -20.5% 20% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$609) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +67% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$627 vs −$656 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$2,049
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses102 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 208
History coverage336d ⚠
Avg bet$881
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? Jun 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Denis Shapovalov win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 29 $447 −$527 -118%
Will Ritchie Torres win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 29 $910 −$910 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $272 +$289 +106%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 29 $472 −$526 -111%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 French Open? Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting? Jun 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 29 $340 −$340 -100%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 29 $70 +$929 +1331%
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 29 $910 −$910 -100%
Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday? Jun 29 $234 −$177 -76%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $267 +$522 +195%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 29 $33 −$28 -86%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Jun 29 $874 −$909 -104%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $47 +$44 +93%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? Jun 29 $599 −$599 -100%
Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 29 $874 −$908 -104%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 29 $1,824 −$2,256 -124%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%? Jun 29 $275 −$782 -284%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 29 $322 −$265 -82%
Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting? Jun 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Jun 29 $910 −$910 -100%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meetin Jun 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Madison Keys win the 2025 French Open? Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 29 $496 −$496 -100%
Will Lois Boisson win the 2025 French Open? Jun 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2025 French Open? Jun 29 $934 −$934 -100%
Will Whitney Tilson win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 29 $910 −$910 -100%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? Jun 29 $140 +$183 +131%
Will Croatia vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 29 $874 −$909 -104%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci Jun 29 $910 −$910 -100%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? Jun 29 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Letitia James win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci Jun 29 $910 −$910 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting? Jun 29 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Czechia beat Croatia? Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jumaane Williams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 29 $910 −$910 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 11 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30? May 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 22 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 94¢ $5 48d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 90¢ $10 48d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 93¢ $10 48d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 92¢ $15 48d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $5 48d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $20 67d
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $5 67d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 67d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 67d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $5 67d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $7 99d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $5 99d
Miami Open: Adam Walton vs Jakub Mensik BUY Jakub Mensik 75¢ $38 99d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $10 144d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $1 144d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $2 144d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 144d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $2 144d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? BUY No 96¢ $2 144d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? BUY No 93¢ $2 144d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 92¢ $2 178d
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 178d
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 99¢ $1 178d
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 99¢ $2 178d
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 98¢ $7 178d
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 98¢ $3 178d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $3 178d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $3 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.88 · official $56.88 (match) · 3500 history records