Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CD 0xcdc4…7a26 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +148% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +107% what you keep after slip
Net edge+107%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$1,109
other 15% +$36
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+123.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +147.5% +123.9% 60% 60% +91.8%
≤30d 15 +147.5% +123.9% 60% 60% +91.8%
≤90d 15 +147.5% +123.9% 60% 60% +91.8%
all 15 +147.5% +123.9% 60% 60% +91.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +123.9% 60% +91.8%
10% +102.5% 60% +73.4%
15% +82.9% 60% +56.7%
20% +65.0% 53% +41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +143% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +147% · $-wt +143% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +287% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$52 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.61 per $1 lost it wins $4.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $108 +$56 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $108 −$100 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $108 −$100 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $108 +$83 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $54 +$47 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $54 +$94 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $54 +$61 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$1,045 +2613%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$27 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 +$28 +131%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $164 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $108 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $108 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $108 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $191 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $108 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $101 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $54 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,085 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $9 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $32 35h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.41 · official $85.41 (match) · 29 history records