trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $378 | $0 | −$378 (-100%) |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $95 | $0 | −$95 (-100%) |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $2,754 | $0 | −$2,754 (-100%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1,031 | $0 | −$1,031 (-100%) |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $3,747 | $0 | −$3,747 (-100%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2,500 | $0 | −$2,500 (-100%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $541 | $0 | −$541 (-100%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2,400 | $0 | −$2,400 (-100%) |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1,000 | $0 | −$1,000 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 10 | $4,724 | +$10,002 | +212% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Jun 10 | $2,500 | −$2,500 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $2,400 | −$2,400 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | May 31 | $1,032 | −$1,031 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $3,750 | −$3,747 | -100% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? | May 30 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 30 | $2,835 | −$2,754 | -97% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 23 | $378 | −$378 | -100% |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | May 19 | $507 | +$438 | +86% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 16 | $542 | −$541 | -100% |
| Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? | May 05 | $385 | −$385 | -100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | May 05 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? | May 05 | $355 | −$355 | -100% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? | May 05 | $97 | −$95 | -98% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | May 01 | $200 | +$187 | +94% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? | Apr 29 | $249 | −$249 | -100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? | Apr 28 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? | Apr 25 | $1,751 | −$1,751 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Apr 22 | $42,067 | −$42,067 | -100% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 19 | $9,924 | +$685 | +7% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 19 | $15,326 | +$13,579 | +89% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Apr 16 | $60,941 | −$60,941 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 08 | $3,753 | −$3,753 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 08 | $1,452 | +$79,759 | +5494% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +3.9% | -6.0% | 33% | 33% | +38.4% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -50.2% | -54.9% | 20% | 20% | -27.6% |
| ≤90d | 24 | +28.6% | +16.4% | 25% | 21% | -50.2% |
| all | 24 | +28.6% | +16.4% | 25% | 21% | -50.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +16.4% | 21% | -50.2% |
| 10% | +5.2% | 21% | -55.0% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -4.9% | 21% | -59.3% |
| 20% | -14.2% | 21% | -63.3% |