Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:14:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdc6…c5b7 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$2
sports 18% −$18
economics 16% $0
world 12% −$1
other 6% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.7% -6.1% 38% 12% -9.1%
≤30d 16 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 6% -10.6%
≤90d 30 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 3% -10.2%
all 44 -5.6% -14.6% 27% 7% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 7% -10.5%
10% -22.7% 7% -19.0%
15% -30.2% 2% -26.9%
20% -37.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage541d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $61 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $9 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +35%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $23 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $12 −$5 -41%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $42 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $140 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $19 $0 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $82 −$3 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $31 −$7 -23%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $239 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $340 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $246 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 31 $254 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $5 $0 -2%
Charleston Southern vs. Radford Mar 03 $4 +$1 +27%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will AC Milan vs. Feyenoord end in a draw? Feb 20 $6 −$2 -28%
Wright State vs. Milwaukee Feb 14 $8 −$2 -30%
UC Riverside vs. UC Davis Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Troy vs. Louisiana Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 12? Feb 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 02 $3 $0 -12%
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election? Dec 30 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $34 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $5 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $0 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $4 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $1 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $7 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $24 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $25 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.96 · official $34.77 (match) · 129 history records