Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcdc7…1483 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$123 (+14%) realized +$155 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$123
14 days+$123
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$81
sports 6% +$16
crypto 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +26.5% +14.4% 50% 50% +8.0%
≤30d 14 +26.5% +14.4% 50% 50% +8.0%
≤90d 14 +26.5% +14.4% 50% 50% +8.0%
all 14 +26.5% +14.4% 50% 50% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 50% +8.0%
10% +3.5% 50% -2.3%
15% -6.5% 50% -11.8%
20% -15.7% 43% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$41 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)14 / 22
History coverage8d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 38¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-14%)
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 30¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 25¢ 22¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 25¢ 19¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 22¢ 10¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $30 +$16 +52%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $35 +$154 +442%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $193 −$190 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$13 +262%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $98 +$126 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $66 +$32 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $31 56m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $20 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $31 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $31 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? BUY Yes 65¢ $41 8h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 65¢ $30 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY 17¢ $25 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 33h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $35 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $193 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $20 5d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $10 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $98 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $66 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $35 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.61 · official $206.88 · 38 history records