Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CD 0xcdca…6677 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$230 (-2%) realized −$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%42W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$238
tech 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
politics 0% +$5
world 0% $0
sports 0% +$2
other 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 2 -49.7% -54.5% 50% 0% -92.5%
≤90d 3 -32.2% -38.7% 67% 0% -86.2%
all 45 -2.7% -12.0% 93% 4% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 4% -11.0%
10% -20.4% 2% -19.5%
15% -28.1% 2% -27.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$82 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses42 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage270d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31? May 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Mar 14 $17 $0 +2%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 6? Nov 09 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,900 and $4,000 on November 4? Nov 06 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on November 3? Nov 04 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 2? Nov 03 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,300 on October 31? Nov 01 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,300 on October 30? Oct 31 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on October 29? Oct 30 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 28? Oct 29 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 27? Oct 28 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on October 26? Oct 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 26? Oct 26 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on October 26? Oct 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on October 25? Oct 26 $212 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $220 on October 24? Oct 25 $212 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 22? Oct 23 $212 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $200 and $210 on October 21? Oct 22 $212 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on October 20? Oct 21 $210 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 19? Oct 20 $209 +$1 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be below $3.00 in September? Oct 19 $12 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 18? Oct 19 $198 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 06 $12 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by September 30? Oct 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 06 $12 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by September 30? Oct 06 $12 $0 +3%
Israel withdraws from Syria before October? Oct 06 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30? Oct 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 06 $10,263 −$10 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.18 in September? Oct 06 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Oct 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Se Oct 06 $12 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? Oct 06 $12 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by September 30? Oct 06 $12 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Oct 06 $12 $0 +0%
OpenAI browser by September 30? Oct 06 $12 $0 +3%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? Oct 06 $12 +$5 +38%
Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State Sep 26 $22 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on Se Sep 26 $50 $0 +0%
Giants vs. Dodgers Sep 20 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $52 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY Yes 1¢ $199 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 32d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31? BUY No 97¢ $18 94d
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? BUY No 98¢ $17 111d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 155d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $17 219d
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 6? BUY No 100¢ $181 223d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,900 and $4,000 on November 4? BUY No 100¢ $181 225d
Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on November 3? BUY No 100¢ $181 226d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $181 227d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,300 on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $181 229d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,300 on October 30? BUY No 100¢ $180 229d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on October 29? BUY No 100¢ $180 230d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 28? BUY No 100¢ $180 231d
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $180 232d
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 26? BUY No 100¢ $70 234d
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 26? BUY No 100¢ $60 234d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on October 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 234d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on October 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 234d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on October 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 234d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on October 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 234d
Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on October 25? BUY No 100¢ $212 234d
Will the price of Solana be above $220 on October 24? BUY No 100¢ $212 235d
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 22? BUY No 100¢ $212 237d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.02 · official $52.02 (match) · 103 history records