Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdcb…b106 sports 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$589 (-16%) realized −$571 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$2
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$500
crypto 3% −$122
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -49.6% -54.4% 33% 33% -11.4%
≤30d 4 -62.2% -65.8% 25% 25% -26.4%
≤90d 40 -22.4% -29.8% 20% 18% -60.3%
all 93 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 35% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 35% -25.4%
10% -19.6% 30% -32.5%
15% -27.4% 22% -39.1%
20% -34.5% 18% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$571
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 58
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage196d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 11¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $70 +$36 +51%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $32 −$32 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $23 −$22 -96%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Gro Apr 27 $42 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute - Map 2 Winner Apr 27 $43 −$42 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $20 +$6 +31%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte - Map 4 Winner Apr 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $14 −$4 -28%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 26 $21 +$9 +45%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Jazz Apr 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group A Apr 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Apr 26 $39 +$29 +76%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Team Secret - Map 2 Winner Apr 26 $15 −$12 -83%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $1 +$31 +3133%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $67 +$35 +52%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Pistons vs. Nets Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Apr 25 $53 −$46 -87%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Madrid Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elena Rybakina Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner Apr 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Apr 25 $173 −$173 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner Apr 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-GANK Esports vs megoshort (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Apr 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 24 $80 +$12 +15%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: 33 vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner Mar 11 $25 +$15 +59%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 11 $71 +$13 +19%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 11 $59 +$13 +21%
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Mar 11 $5 +$4 +72%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 11 $30 +$21 +70%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Mar 10 $50 $0 -0%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Mar 10 $6 −$1 -20%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-1.5) Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $75 27m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports $2 30m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 66¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports $3 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 15¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 14¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 12¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 12¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $86 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 61¢ $24 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 47¢ $19 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz $1 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz $4 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $32 2d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $15 12d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Gro BUY Brute 22¢ $24 49d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute - Map 2 Winner BUY Ursa $1 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 305 history records