Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:12:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcdcc…7c07 sports 47 markets active 15h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$583 (+11%) realized +$583 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$1,012
14 days+$987
30 days+$987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,223
other 21% −$674
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +26.6% +14.6% 52% 52% +18.3%
≤30d 37 +23.5% +11.8% 49% 49% +14.8%
≤90d 42 +8.8% -1.6% 43% 43% +3.1%
all 47 +8.3% -2.0% 45% 43% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 43% +0.9%
10% -11.4% 43% -8.8%
15% -19.9% 40% -17.6%
20% -27.8% 38% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$98 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$583
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage281d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 +$80 +79%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 +$368 +360%
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $103 −$101 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $110 +$65 +59%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $104 +$94 +90%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$97 -96%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$217 +213%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$69 +69%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $125 +$74 +59%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $103 −$101 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 −$101 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $111 +$86 +78%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $83 −$81 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$99 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $106 +$44 +41%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $205 +$210 +102%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$14 -14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$140 +137%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $103 +$105 +102%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$196 +194%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $203 +$161 +79%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $200 +$176 +88%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $201 −$197 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $56 +$303 +543%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $95 +$195 +206%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $110 −$16 -14%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? May 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-06? May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-11-06? May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kocaelispor vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-09? May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 29 $369 −$294 -80%
Will Club Brugge KV vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Nov 05 $200 +$336 +168%
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 04 $258 +$62 +24%
Will Turkey win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Sep 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $0 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $7 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $69 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $19 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $17 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $0 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $0 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $82 15h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $182 43h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $470 43h
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 28¢ $103 44h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 44h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $102 44h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $175 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $110 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $0 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $3 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $94 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $4 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $198 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $104 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $1 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $2 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $319 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $169 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $100 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records