Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

CD 0xcdcd…ea10 sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$620 (-15%) realized −$655 · open +$35

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR28%break-even

Win rate28%12W / 31L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$89per market

Trades / day9.2pace

Fees−$56est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +28%

net ROI/market (all)-37.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	43	-31.2%	-37.7%	28%	28%	-33.2%
≤30d	43	-31.2%	-37.7%	28%	28%	-33.2%
≤90d	43	-31.2%	-37.7%	28%	28%	-33.2%
all	43	-31.2%	-37.7%	28%	28%	-33.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-37.7%	28%	-33.2%
10%	-43.7%	23%	-39.6%
15%	-49.1%	21%	-45.5%
20%	-54.1%	16%	-50.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -31% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -26% → late -36% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$133 vs −$84 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.61 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$350

Realized−$655

Unrealized+$35

Win rate (resolved)28%

Wins / losses12 / 31

Est. fees paid−$56

Open positions4

Markets (closed)43 / 47

History coverage5d

Avg bet$89

Trades / day9.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 43 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5)	Ghana	38¢	57¢	$85	$128	+$44 (+51%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Under	40¢	40¢	$78	$77	−$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	No	31¢	30¢	$75	$74	−$1 (-2%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	Under	19¢	18¢	$76	$70	−$6 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$84	−$84	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$86	−$86	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$87	−$87	-100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$91	−$91	-100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 23	$95	−$95	-100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$91	−$91	-100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 23	$95	−$95	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$92	+$129	+140%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$95	−$95	-100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$94	−$94	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$95	−$95	-100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$91	−$91	-100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$92	+$124	+134%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$94	+$39	+42%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$97	+$315	+325%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 21	$94	−$94	-100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$96	−$96	-100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 21	$96	−$96	-100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$94	−$94	-100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$96	−$96	-100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	Jun 21	$92	+$13	+14%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	Jun 21	$91	+$17	+18%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	Jun 21	$94	+$29	+31%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	Jun 21	$160	−$58	-36%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$160	+$246	+154%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$82	+$114	+140%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	Jun 21	$82	+$154	+188%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$81	+$382	+474%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$86	−$86	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$87	−$87	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$84	−$84	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$85	−$85	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$86	−$86	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$89	−$89	-100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$91	−$91	-100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$91	+$33	+36%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$50	−$50	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$51	−$51	-100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	Jun 19	$50	−$50	-100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 19	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	−$102	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$51	−$51	-100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$102	−$102	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	31¢	$76	1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	19¢	$78	1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	40¢	$79	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	75¢	$84	4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	55¢	$86	4h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	38¢	$86	6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	34¢	$87	11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	37¢	$91	16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	37¢	$91	21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$92	23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	22¢	$95	23h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	38¢	$95	35h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	19¢	$94	35h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	33¢	$95	35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$95	40h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	28¢	$91	47h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	84¢	$91	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	28¢	$94	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	50¢	$96	2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	25¢	$94	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	45¢	$96	2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$92	2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	70¢	$94	2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	23¢	$97	2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	87¢	$92	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	76¢	$94	2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	73¢	$96	2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	19¢	$79	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	17¢	$81	2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	41¢	$82	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.58 · official $342.88 · 94 history records