Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdcd…3cca other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,034 (+1%) realized +$1,035 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 108L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$732per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,823now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$22
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$1,073
politics 35% −$41
sports 11% −$2
economics 4% −$5
crypto 2% +$1
culture 2% −$3
world 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 +2.1% -7.6% 8% 2% -7.9%
all 134 -2.6% -11.9% 19% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 10% -8.6%
10% -20.3% 10% -17.3%
15% -28.0% 8% -25.3%
20% -35.1% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$874) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$7 · ×9.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,823
Realized+$1,035
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage155d
Avg bet$732
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $946 $945 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $878 $877 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,259 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $2,512 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,770 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,749 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $558 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $1,015 +$2 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $868 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $2,552 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,261 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $2,522 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,452 −$3 -0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 07 $1,013 +$1,457 +144%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $219 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 21 $225 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 21 $219 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,789 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,467 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,294 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $841 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $867 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,376 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 02 $836 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $2,585 −$3 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $840 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $808 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $859 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $1,456 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $857 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $946 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $878 2h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,566 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,568 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,542 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,544 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,646 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,648 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,457 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,460 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,544 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,546 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,747 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,749 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,175 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,176 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,038 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,541 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,544 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,580 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,583 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,633 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,635 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,563 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,565 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $690 17d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $691 17d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $863 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $864 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,822.54 · official $1,822.54 (match) · 358 history records