Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdd1…3309 other 244 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$40
sports 24% −$19
culture 7% −$6
politics 6% −$7
economics 6% −$4
world 4% −$3
crypto 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage130d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $275 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $128 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $253 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 17 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $421 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $292 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $656 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $155 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $388 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $114 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $267 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $395 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $247 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $460 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $314 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $624 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $46 2h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $46 3h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 5h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 7h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 14h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 16h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 17h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 18h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 23h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 25h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 26h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 27h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 29h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 30h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 32h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 33h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 35h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 36h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 38h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 39h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 45h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 46h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $47 2d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1376 history records