Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdd4…56ab world 15 markets active 3d ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$223 (-42%) realized −$223 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$175
world 22% −$49
other 20% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -53.0% -57.5% 40% 0% -52.5%
≤30d 6 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 17% -37.9%
≤90d 15 -23.9% -31.1% 40% 20% -48.0%
all 15 -23.9% -31.1% 40% 20% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 20% -48.0%
10% -37.7% 20% -53.0%
15% -43.7% 13% -57.5%
20% -49.2% 13% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$30 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage63d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $34 −$28 -82%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 03 $4 +$10 +240%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $17 +$11 +64%
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $62 +$18 +29%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $204 −$149 -73%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 20 $71 −$28 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 13 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$1 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $15 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 15d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $24 53d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 53d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $17 54d
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 57¢ $28 54d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 56d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY No $0 58d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY No $0 58d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY No $2 58d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 77¢ $62 58d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No $8 58d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? SELL No $55 58d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 25¢ $2 59d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 32¢ $32 59d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY No 23¢ $46 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 64d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY No 26¢ $75 65d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $42 65d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 32¢ $35 65d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 33¢ $36 65d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? SELL Yes $4 65d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $40 65d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes $5 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records