Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CD 0xcdd6…b986 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$194 (+1%) realized +$84 · open +$110

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%6W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1,122per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$14,185now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-6.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+3.3%	-6.5%	100%	0%	-6.8%
≤30d	6	+3.3%	-6.5%	100%	0%	-6.8%
≤90d	6	+3.3%	-6.5%	100%	0%	-6.8%
all	6	+3.3%	-6.5%	100%	0%	-6.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.5%	0%	-6.8%
10%	-15.5%	0%	-15.7%
15%	-23.7%	0%	-23.9%
20%	-31.1%	0%	-31.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$14 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$14,185

Realized+$84

Unrealized+$110

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses6 / 0

Open positions9

Markets (closed)6 / 15

History coverage10d

Avg bet$1,122

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	No	98¢	99¢	$8,580	$8,666	+$86 (+1%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	No	97¢	97¢	$3,377	$3,398	+$21 (+1%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June	Nothing	97¢	97¢	$1,793	$1,793	+$0 (+0%)
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	97¢	97¢	$204	$203	−$1 (-0%)
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?	No	96¢	99¢	$79	$82	+$3 (+4%)
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?	No	97¢	99¢	$39	$40	+$1 (+2%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$2	+$0 (+50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$0 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$0 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Jun 18	$603	+$44	+7%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Jun 18	$29	+$1	+2%
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Jun 18	$56	+$1	+2%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Jun 18	$60	+$1	+1%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$1,967	+$33	+2%
Will Wataru Endo be in Japan's Starting 11?	Jun 14	$38	+$2	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch?	BUY No	99¢	$99	1h
Nothing Ever Happens: June	BUY Nothing	97¢	$1,793	11h
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	97¢	$2,355	13h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch?	BUY No	96¢	$105	14h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	29h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	BUY No	99¢	$847	36h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	BUY No	99¢	$526	39h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	3d
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?	BUY No	97¢	$39	3d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	94¢	$107	5d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	94¢	$16	6d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	94¢	$601	6d
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	98¢	$29	6d
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	98¢	$56	6d
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027?	BUY Yes	99¢	$60	6d
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	93¢	$603	6d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	97¢	$172	6d
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	98¢	$977	8d
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	99¢	$792	8d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	BUY No	98¢	$7,213	9d
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?	BUY No	96¢	$79	9d
Will Wataru Endo be in Japan's Starting 11?	BUY No	95¢	$38	9d
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	99¢	$198	9d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	94¢	$126	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,185.13 · official $14,185.13 (match) · 31 history records