Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcddb…befa weather 169 markets active 14h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$511 (-1%) realized −$565 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate45%75W / 93L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,054now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$207
14 days+$429
30 days+$879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$912
weather 13% −$1,598
other 6% +$54
world 4% +$43
finance 4% −$81
tech 3% −$27
sports 1% $0
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.5% -7.3% 86% 14% -8.4%
≤30d 39 +22.6% +10.9% 85% 8% -8.3%
≤90d 168 -34.7% -40.9% 45% 13% -10.4%
all 168 -34.7% -40.9% 45% 13% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 13% -10.4%
10% -46.6% 8% -19.0%
15% -51.8% 7% -26.8%
20% -56.5% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$3,054
Realized−$565
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses75 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
History coverage66d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,000 $3,054 +$54 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,802 +$28 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,704 +$60 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $2,004 −$27 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,743 +$36 +2%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $301 +$34 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2,604 +$49 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,002 +$27 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3,584 +$53 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,203 +$45 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3,005 +$70 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $802 +$31 +4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 07 $219 −$12 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $803 +$34 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1,902 −$58 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,383 +$164 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $302 +$23 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $2,562 −$129 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,482 +$24 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,001 +$15 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2,002 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $3,003 +$30 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2,286 +$34 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,728 +$67 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $3,000 +$56 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $3,056 +$112 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $2,802 +$19 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3,036 −$81 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $123 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $2,713 +$71 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $201 +$14 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $120 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $25 −$15 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $2,031 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $2,002 +$24 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? May 22 $45 +$4 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $951 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $865 +$25 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 17? May 21 $1 +$9 +857%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 21 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5 May 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $46 +$27 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on May 16? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $3,004 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $3,802 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $2,002 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,977 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1,702 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,004 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $741 3d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY New York Liberty 90¢ $301 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,653 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $600 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,004 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $2,029 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $2,002 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $80 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,504 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $801 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $797 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 93¢ $402 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 97¢ $3,005 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 96¢ $301 10d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL No 66¢ $207 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 96¢ $501 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? SELL Yes 99¢ $837 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 95¢ $301 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 95¢ $502 10d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 68¢ $219 11d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $111 12d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $1 12d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,053.74 · official $3,053.74 (match) · 407 history records