Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

CD 0xcde4…85df crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$4 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate60%12W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day39.0pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-24.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-16.4%	-24.3%	60%	35%	-17.7%
≤30d	20	-16.4%	-24.3%	60%	35%	-17.7%
≤90d	20	-16.4%	-24.3%	60%	35%	-17.7%
all	20	-16.4%	-24.3%	60%	35%	-17.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover39.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-24.3%	35%	-17.7%
10% ← realistic here	-31.6%	15%	-25.6%
15%	-38.2%	5%	-32.8%
20%	-44.2%	0%	-39.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -6% → late -27% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.44 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$19

Realized+$4

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses12 / 8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day39.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	84¢	81¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 26	$20	−$20	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 26	$10	+$2	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 26	$20	+$2	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 26	$10	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 26	$50	+$2	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 26	$20	−$7	-33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 26	$101	+$4	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 26	$10	+$2	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$3	-52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 26	$10	+$2	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 26	$10	+$2	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 26	$10	+$4	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 26	$21	−$6	-26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 26	$10	−$1	-13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 26	$50	+$4	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 26	$10	+$2	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 26	$10	+$2	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$20	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	SELL Up	97¢	$12	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$10	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	SELL Down	87¢	$22	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	SELL Up	89¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$53	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$56	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	SELL Up	85¢	$48	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$12	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	SELL Up	25¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	SELL Up	93¢	$13	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$12	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$10	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$10	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$10	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	SELL Down	23¢	$2	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$54	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.17 · official $19.06 (match) · 47 history records