Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CD 0xcde5…1158 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-5%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$2
culture 22% −$1
crypto 20% +$27
sports 13% −$55
politics 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 12 -3.7% -12.9% 25% 25% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 25% -16.9%
10% -21.2% 25% -24.8%
15% -28.8% 25% -32.1%
20% -35.8% 25% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage532d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? No 96¢ 95¢ $192 $192 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) Mar 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 3PM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3AM ET Jan 23 $2 +$2 +96%
Tigres de la UANL vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5 Dec 07 $11 +$10 +89%
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Nov 12 $31 +$29 +96%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 31 $29 $0 -0%
League of Legends: FlyQuest vs. Cloud9 Jul 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $22 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 16 $125 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? Jul 14 $18 $0 -2%
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? Jul 14 $62 −$2 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $7 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 96¢ $192 1h
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) BUY Brad Tavares 46¢ $13 94d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 3PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 145d
Tigres de la UANL vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 191d
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 217d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 63¢ $29 228d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 63¢ $29 228d
League of Legends: FlyQuest vs. Cloud9 BUY Cloud9 41¢ $52 335d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 28¢ $21 335d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 28¢ $22 335d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 45¢ $45 335d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 45¢ $45 335d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? SELL No 41¢ $18 336d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? BUY No 42¢ $18 336d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 55¢ $79 336d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 55¢ $80 336d
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? SELL No 31¢ $60 337d
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? BUY No 32¢ $62 337d
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 45¢ $6 445d
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 55¢ $7 532d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.74 · official $191.74 (match) · 28 history records