Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcde5…23f7 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$369 (-46%) realized −$280 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day129.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$341
other 7% −$2
sports 3% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-55.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -50.3% -55.1% 23% 23% -53.8%
≤30d 13 -50.3% -55.1% 23% 23% -53.8%
≤90d 13 -50.3% -55.1% 23% 23% -53.8%
all 13 -50.3% -55.1% 23% 23% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.1% 23% -53.8%
10% ← realistic here -59.4% 23% -58.2%
15% -63.3% 23% -62.3%
20% -66.9% 15% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$43 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$280
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)13 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day129.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Down 0¢ 0¢ $70 $17 −$52 (-75%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? Down 2¢ 1¢ $20 $11 −$8 (-43%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 28¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $93 −$50 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$24 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $105 +$112 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $38 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $24 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $29 19m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $2 20m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $0 20m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $3 20m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $3 21m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $3 21m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $0 21m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $3 21m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.00 · official $79.00 (match) · 130 history records