Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcde7…2114 other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days−$29
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$36
sports 24% −$23
culture 10% −$10
politics 7% −$6
economics 7% −$6
crypto 6% −$8
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage135d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $477 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $405 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $720 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $463 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $388 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $295 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $727 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $397 −$2 -1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $756 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $390 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $329 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $329 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $155 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $132 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $655 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $318 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $363 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $317 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $455 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $269 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $271 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $733 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 5h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 7h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 9h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 10h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 14h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 16h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 21h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 28h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 29h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 31h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 32h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 34h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 35h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 37h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 38h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 39h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 41h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 42h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 45h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 47h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1394 history records