Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcde8…4060 crypto 430 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-8%) realized −$42 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%208W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day54.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$57
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 -21.6% -29.1% 44% 43% -28.9%
≤30d 428 -10.4% -18.9% 49% 48% -20.5%
≤90d 428 -10.4% -18.9% 49% 48% -20.5%
all 428 -10.4% -18.9% 49% 48% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 48% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 47% -28.1%
15% -33.8% 46% -35.1%
20% -40.3% 43% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses208 / 220
Open positions2
Markets (closed)428 / 430
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day54.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 46¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $1.06 (match) · 885 history records