Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CD 0xcdf1…ca82 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+11%) realized +$27 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$49
sports 28% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 56% +7.4%
≤30d 9 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 56% +7.4%
≤90d 9 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 56% +7.4%
all 9 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 56% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 56% +7.4%
10% -15.7% 44% -2.9%
15% -23.8% 44% -12.3%
20% -31.3% 44% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbek Jun 18 $20 +$3 +17%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06 BUY 13¢ $21 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbek SELL 89¢ $24 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbek BUY 75¢ $20 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.39 · official $59.40 (match) · 21 history records