Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CD
0xcdf3…ef1d
crypto · 6 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$211 +45%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$211 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$142
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 1 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$211
14 days+$211
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $142 $142 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$22 +22%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $203 +$185 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% +$208
other 31% $0
crypto 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 2h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 99¢ $388 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $146 3h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 4h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +37.1% +24.1% 80% 80% +50.5%
≤30d 5 +37.1% +24.1% 80% 80% +50.5%
≤90d 5 +37.1% +24.1% 80% 80% +50.5%
all 5 +37.1% +24.1% 80% 80% +50.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.1% 80% +50.5%
10% +12.2% 60% +36.1%
15% +1.3% 60% +22.9%
20% -8.6% 60% +10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.73 · official $141.73 (match) · 11 history records